Hearthstone Insights into Arena Card Picks and Future Plans

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Hearthstone Arena

Hearthstone Arenawho love one, they hate the other, others have no idea how it works. To provide a little more clarity and to make the first steps easier for beginners, the Hearthstone developer gives a little insight into the mechanics. At the same time, there is a first glimpse into the future of the arena.

The first step in an arena run is this Deck creation. 30x you have the choice between 3 cards. These are not totally random, but internally divided into groups. Each group of cards has various criteria, for example how often they are chosen and how often they are represented in successful decks. In the assignment, the cards are not classified purely according to rarity, but according to performance and how strong they are. Every time it is your turn to choose a card, the game selects a group and presents you with 3 cards.

Explanation of the card groups


The weighting and assignment to the groups is a science in itself, so here is the official explanation:

“You may be wondering how the cards are assigned to a group. For every card, we know how likely it is that a player with that card in the deck will win. The cards are ranked according to their win rate. Cards with similar values are assigned to the same group. For example, when the system was introduced in Patch 10.4, Group 1 included all cards with a win rate above 53 %. The number of cards in group 1 is relatively small. Each additional group contains more and more cards as the win rate decreases. We also know how likely it is that players will choose certain cards. Cards that are chosen very often are “promoted” to the next group. So it was, for example, with the obsidian statue that migrated from Group 2 to Group 1 with Patch 11.0. Cards that are rarely chosen are “demoted” by one group. These include, for example, the little fire devil, who was downgraded from group 2 to group 3 with patch 11.0.

 Weighting of the arena cards

Many cards appear more or less frequently, depending on which card type they belong to (spell, weapon, class card, etc.). Hence theirs weighting. For example, a card that is 50 % more likely to appear would have a weight of 1.5. The probability of each group is proportional to the total weighting of all cards in it. A group with an overall weight of 200 would likely appear twice as often as a group with an overall weight of 100.

We are currently using the following modifiers for the weighting of cards: Class cards appear 100 % more frequently, neutral cards from the Classic and Basic Set 50 % less often, and spells and weapons appear 75 % more frequently. Since spells and weapons are also class cards, the two modifiers are multiplied, which means that these cards appear 250 % more often (2.0 * 1.75 = 3.5). Cards in the newest set do not receive any bonuses. In addition, the probability is reduced that the groups with the lowest quality will be selected. "


Outlook into the future of Hearthstone Arena

The team is not 100% satisfied with the card selection and also wants to offer more freedom and interesting decisions for the players. Some adjustments are planned in patch 11.2:

  • New selection groups that are located between the previous ones and that overlap
  • 6 new groups for non-legendary cards and more for legendary cards.
  • The strongest and weakest cards in the groups will not appear in the overlaps.

You can find the detailed explanation of the Heartstone developers at the official homepage.

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